The Social Web: My Predictions for 2009


It’s that time of year, when would-be futurists are compelled to publicly assert their predictions for the coming year. IMHO, I knocked it out of the park with my prediction for 2008.

So, I decided to go bigger this year, and make not one, but five bold predictions around the emergence of the Social Web.

Prediction 1: Facebook will begin its migration to the “Open Stack” and roll out support for at least one piece of it. Leading candidates: OpenID and OAuth.

Prediction 2: Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft will rollout support for Portable Contacts for their respective webmail services.

Prediction 3: Microsoft will implement OAuth, at least for Portable Contacts, if not more broadly.

Prediction 4: Microsoft’s “Windows Live” social network will become an OpenSocial container.

Prediction 5: Plaxo will so successfully prove onboard turbocharging via the Open Stack that they will abandon traditional email/password signups entirely.

These predictions are solely my opinion and are not based on any knowledge of specific product plans — except for maybe number 5. 😉

As with last year, I will check in on these at mid-year and end of the year.

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8 thoughts on “The Social Web: My Predictions for 2009

  1. […] December 22, 2008 in Uncategorized | Tags: chrismessina, josephsmarr This episode went up over the weekend over at The Social Web TV. After many weeks of travel, Chris Messina is back, joining me and Joseph Smarr for our first year-end holiday show. You can see me develop off the top of my head some of my bold predictions for 2009. […]

  2. Marc Canter says:

    Indeed Microsoft will be supporting OpenSocial – in 2009.

  3. Moti Karmona says:

    Interesting predictions.

    Regarding Prediction 4: Why do you think that Microsoft’s “Windows Live” social network will become an OpenSocial container when all the signs seems to predict the opposite:

    1. Microsoft exec trashes Google’s OpenSocial
    2. Microsoft Gives OpenSocial the Cold Shoulder;
    3. Google/OpenSocial vs. Microsoft/Facebook

  4. therealmccrea says:

    Moti, thanks for your question. I see Microsoft making moves on the Open Stack. They’ve become an OpenID provider. I believe they will support OAuth. And they have been involved in the Portable Contacts initiative every step along the way. Also, at Le Web, an exec was asked about OpenSocial, and the answer was something along the lines of “we’re looking at it”. I have *no* inside information on this one, but I thought it was an interesting “long shot” prediction to put out there. Plus, with Microsoft entering the social networking space, they are essentially competing with Facebook. So, this will be interesting to see what happens!

  5. Agitationist says:

    Slightly more bold predictions:
    Would like to hear your take…

    • toofah says:

      Have Yahoo or Live added support for Portable Contacts yet? I have only been able to find support by Google, Plaxo, and MySpace.

      • therealmccrea says:

        Sorry for the delay. Alas, Yahoo has not. Microsoft has implemented the PoCo schema, but not yet with OAuth for delegated auth.

  6. […] a truly open, interoperable Social Web. But, I wondered, how well did that progress map to my five bold predictions for 2009, penned December 18, […]

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