Meebo Party: “I Want to _______ With You”

Had a fun time last night in SF at Meebo’s second-birthday-and-platform-launch party. Got a cool, “I want to ______ with you” t-shirt. Saw Cameron Ring, one of Plaxo’s co-founders, mixing with Megan McCarthy from Valleywag. Talked”open social” with Joseph Smarr and lots of folks, including David Recordon of SixApart. Meebo’s really making great strides.

If you can get a lot of people using your product many hours a day for real-time interaction, as they have, you can begin to do some interesting things.

Here are a few of my pics from the event.

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My First Podcast

I had the pleasure today of participating in my first audio podcast. Thom Singer, author of “Some Assembly Required” interviewed me for his blog. Thom’s a guy down in Austin who is a thought leader in the world of networking, and he’s helping a lot of folks who aren’t spending all day and night in Silicon Valley make sense of the new tools for social networking.

You can listen to the podcast here. 

Thom and I had a lot of fun recording it. I hope we make this something we do from time-to-time.

Note to Thom and other bloggers and journalists: I’m eager to do more of these sorts of things. What I’d like to talk about next is how Twitter is making a difference in my life, and what Twitter means to those of us in the marketing profession.

Has Facebook “Jumped the Shark”?

The Wall

I suppose I should have seen this coming. Feelings run deep with respect to Microsoft and on the topic of privacy. If the Facebook/Microsoft deal gives Microsoft access to the Facebook social graph in detail for the purpose of ad targeting, might this cause concern and consternation, at least for some?

Apparently, the answer is, “Yes.”

In a post entitled, “This is a poke-free zone,” a South African blogger, Ivo, says he’s leaving Facebook, closing his account there, and heading over to Orkut. It seems he also the created a group on Facebook called “If Facebook sells to Microsoft, we’re leaving”!

And in a post entitled “Please Turn Out the Lights,” Wired Gecko jumps on the bandwagon, and indicates he’s leaving Facebook for Orkut and Plaxo’s Pulse. 

A few lone wolves, or the beginnings of a mass migration?

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“Open” Momentum is Building

BarCamp, social graph

The past few months have been an amazing ride. Ever since Facebook highjacked the term “open” to refer to their proprietary “OS for the social web” (complete with embracing and extending HTML to become “FBML”), there’s been a slowly building momentum of resistance. The chorus of voices in support of an open social web has been growing.

And it all seemed to come together in recent weeks, reaching a crescendo at the Web 2.0 Summit, where Google declared that the platform is the web, and Facebook admitted that their walled garden approach was flawed and needed to be corrected.

I’m also looking forward to a bunch of things coming that will turn the rhetoric into reality. Stay tuned. 2007 will go out in style, and mark a real turning point in the effort to keep the social web as open as the web itself.

Facebook/Microsoft Deal Analysis: Part 2

The Wall

The talk around many water coolers today is of the “incredible” or “crazy” deal that valued Facebook at $15 billion. Yes, $15 billion — for a three-year-old company that is just hitting cash flow positive on a mere $150 million in revenue. People ask, “Does this mean we are now formally in a Bubble again?”

My answer is, “No.” Why? Because Microsoft is Microsoft, not a VC firm. Microsoft couldn’t care less whether their investment valued Facebook at $1 billion or $100 billion, because this wasn’t a venture capital investment decision for them. It was a purchase, not of a piece of Facebook, but of a very unique and strategically important asset — the run of ad inventory on the Facebook network through 2011 (minus some portion reserved by Facebook), plus some undisclosed amount of access to user profile data essential for “social targeting” of the ads.

There is only one Facebook, and somebody was going to end up with the exclusive right to sell its ad inventory and leverage its user data. In the end, it came down to a question of which of the three big players needed it most — Microsoft, Google, or Yahoo. It is not at all surprising that once the bidding got high enough, Yahoo got priced out. Nor is it surprising that Google stayed in until the end, ensuring that if Microsoft had stronger need to win, it would have do so at the highest possible price.

For cash-rich Microsoft (they have over $20 billion on hand), this was not a terribly costly deal. For their $240 million, they get something that just might help them leapfrog Google in battle for supremacy in the huge and growing market of online advertising.

Oh, yeah. And one more thing. By agreeing to a deal that effectively values Facebook at $15 billion, they have made sure that neither Google nor Yahoo will buy the company. All in all, I’d say a very smart play by Microsoft, and a very well played hand by Facebook.

And, no, we are not in a Bubble.

To read what I think are the implications for others in the space, like Plaxo and LinkedIn, here’s a post I did yesterday

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Why Facebook *is* Worth $15 Billion

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The news has now broken. Microsoft has taken a minority stake in Facebook that places a valuation on the company in the $15 billion range. How could this possibly make sense? Is it just a simple multiple on a revenue number based on a current and projected growth rate? Probably hard to make a $15 billion case based on that alone. (100x current revenue!)

The real answer lies in how Facebook differs from the riff raff of “social networks.” Facebook has always distanced itself from that term, prefering “social utility.” Why? Because Facebook isn’t about friending strangers. It is, instead, one of a small number of players that have staked a play based on the belief that “who you know” is fundamentally valuable, and that if you could ever amass a large enough collection of who-you-know data, that “social graph” would enable a variety of monetization strategies. For Facebook, and now for Microsoft, the bet is that the social graph can turbo-charge online ad targeting.

The two other most prominent players in the who-you-know space are LinkedIn and Plaxo. (Disclosure: I run marketing at Plaxo.) Oh, and outside the U.S., a company called Xing, which is, like LinkedIn, focused on “business networking.” LinkedIn makes money from being a middleman between job seekers and recruiters.

Plaxo, on the other hand, got its start in the who-you-know business with a “networked address book” and a “freemium” business model. More recently, to the surprise of most industry-watchers, the company has been re-inventing itself as a next-generation social network, leveraging the huge piece of the social graph that they are hosting for tens of millions, by “bringing address books to life.” And how are they monetizing their social network, Pulse? With targeted advertising, of course!

With Facebook valued at $15 billion, what are the implications for others in the who-you-know business space? Will the rising tide lift all boats equally or some more than others? 

To really understand this deal, see Part 2 of my analysis, that explains what Microsoft actually paid for.

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Great Panel at OpenFaced

Video is now up from the OpenFaced unconference at Dave McClure’s Graphing Social Patterns conference.

Description:

Panel discussion on social networking data portability, access & distribution of social graph data. Moderator Tantek Celik; panelists David Recordon / SixApart, Joseph Smarr / Plaxo, Ted Grubb / Satisfaction Unlimited, & Chamath Palihapitiya / Facebook.

Plaxo Ups the “Open” Ante; Adds Lifestreaming Widget

Opening up the social networks has suddenly become a mainstream topic. At the Web 2.0 Summit, Mark Zuckerberg finally admitted that Facebook’s current “walled garden” approach is neither sustainable nor right.  From ZDnet: 

Marc Canter asked Zuckerberg about allowing users to export their Facebook data. “It’s a flaw in the system right now,” Zuckerberg said. He didn’t offer any time frame for fixing the “flaw.” 

I like how Marc defines “open.” From Wired blogs: 

quoth Canter, “This is a two way street. We have to both suck and spit. 

With that out of the way, I am pleased to report that Plaxo has taken its openness to the next level, adding a new “lifestreaming widget” to its Pulse service, that lets users take the aggregated stream of their feeds and “spit” it out to any web page that allows javascript. (Alas, I just discovered a few hours ago that WordPress-hosted blogs, such as this one, do not allow javascript. Okay, that is lame.) 

This is a second way Pulse “spits.” It joins another option that has been live for several weeks; Pulse offers it users RSS feeds of the streams they receive and the stream they create, co-mingled or separate, for consumption via any RSS reader. 

What’s in my lifestream? The content I create via del.icio.us, Digg, Flickr, and Twitter. And this blog. What could be in your lifestream? The content you create on those services and dozens of others, including Facebook (Notes and Posted Items), MySpace, Jaiku, Last.fm, and Amazon (your Wish List). 

How hard is it to set up? Super easy. You just cut-and-paste one javascript snippet into any web page, and you’re good to go.

Check out Michael Arrington’s coverage over at TechCrunch.

Plaxo’s press release is here.

Facebook’s Ad Platform: Remarkably Open

Bee on Sunflower

Facebook’s upgrade to its Flyers offering has been generating a lot of buzz this morning, with coverage on Valleywag and TechCrunch. Will be interesting to see where they go with this.

Whether it becomes a big revenue driver or not, it certainly is fun to play with. Facebook Flyers is also an interesting window into the walled garden.

Here are a few results from my experimenting:

3,716,960 women who are single in the United States

548,240 liberal women who are single in the United States

329,180 moderate women who are single in the United States

356,320 conservative women who are single in the United States

Or:

1,400 men older than 45 in Turkey

220 people in Israel who like Scuba Diving

Okay. I gotta stop. This could be addictive.

Alright. One last one:

100 people in the Netherlands who like Honey.

Address Books Turning Into Social Networks

The folks at Plaxo have found the pathway that connects “networked address books” and social networks. It’s the guiding vision behind their strategy for Pulse, their next-generation social network, which “brings your address book to life.”

Interesting to see such concepts picking up steam now across the industry. Articles published today in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist address the notion of address books as potential social networks.

In “Social graph-iti,” the Economist says:

Silicon Valley’s craze for the “social graph”, however, is overdone. The term has been around in computer science for decades, says Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive, so it is puzzling that Mr Zuckerberg should get any special credit for using it. “We have address books, and the sum of the address books is the social graph,” he says. Companies such as Plaxo, which help to synchronise address books, and Google itself, which has a primitive address book in its web-mail service, plan to turn these books into fully fledged social graphs that can do useful and productive things, perhaps including new variants of mini-feeds.

In an article entitled, “Will Social Features Make Email Sexy Again?” the Wall Street Journal’s Kevin Delaney and Vauhini Vara write:

The biggest Web email services — including Yahoo Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Time Warner Inc.’s AOL unit — are adding features that allow users to perform such sociable functions as tracking friends and creating personal-profile pages for others to see. At the same time, social networks like Facebook and News Corp.‘s MySpace have upgraded their messaging services, enabling individuals to send emails to the outside world from their accounts, transmit video greetings to friends and make voice calls from their computers.